Ariz. Senate Race Will Come Down to Turnout, New Poll Says

Ariz. Senate Race Will Come Down to Turnout, New Poll Says

Ariz. Senate Race Will Come Down to Turnout, New Poll Says

"In a sense, I am on the ticket", he told a raucous crowd in Cleveland. He said Democrats encouraged chaos at the borders because it was good politics. But two years after an election that proved polls and prognosticators wrong, nothing is certain on the eve of the first nationwide elections of the Trump presidency.

Most midterm elections, business-oriented Republican fund-raising efforts far outpace those of Democrats, generally fuelled by labour and other interest groups.

They won't want to make a sitting President look bad in the run up to 2020 after all.

Whatever the outcome, Trump made clear he knew he was on the line.

Trump is holding a pair of rallies Sunday for Georgia's Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp and in Chattanooga, Tennessee, for Republican Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn.

As recently as last week, when Trump was accused of sowing division with his response to the synagogue shootings in Pittsburgh and harsh rhetoric on migrants travelling to the U.S. border from Central America, voters heard little about that from Democrats running for Congress.

Democrats have been talking about the possibility of it for a while now. That was by design.

Cantor warns that if Democrats win, they'll have to deal with that same danger of high expectations from their left-wing base. They accuse the party of being too timid, too afraid of alienating moderate voters. "While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them".

"It's a sign of their weakness. It's something that the American public will probably expect to come up, based on what they've been hearing in the lead-up to these elections", she said.

"We're here to show our support", Hodgson said. "We have to give America two choices here". McSally, a former combat pilot, has accused Sinema of "treason" for comments about the Afghanistan War in 2002 while Democrats have been hammering McSally over her vote to repeal President Barack Obama's health care law.

DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS BMO Capital Markets analysts Jon Hill, Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery wrote in a recent note that many of their clients are skeptical of political polls on the congressional elections.

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Besides, Trump certainly is never far from voters' minds, they add.

"I can only go for four or five minutes with that stuff, and then the crowd says 'we love you, ' and then they start dwindling off", Trump said at the rally.

Trump finally explained why he's ditching the economy for immigration as his hot button talking point at his bare-knuckle style rallies. The strangers faced each other from opposite edges of the great American divide, Democrat versus Republican, both convinced the election is among the most consequential in their lifetimes and that they must save the nation from the other side. Out of the 35 Senate contests Tuesday, 10 involve Democratic incumbents seeking re-election in states that Trump won big.

Nevertheless, electoral projections support the restrained approach. According to projections, Democrats are a strong favorite to win the night's big prize: this time, the House.

"House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats".

The local steelworkers union is backing Bost's Democratic challenger Brendan Kelly, a local prosecutor who shares many of Trump's views on trade even though the district also is home to farmers who stand to suffer from lost exports.

With Trump's every provocative word seemingly splayed across cable news daily, the strategy has often led to a jarring juxtaposition outside of Washington.

In all of this, there are some highly unusual elements that have made for a riveting campaign season.

The Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks campaign ads by subject matter, said in September that the president was mentioned negatively in less than 5% of TV ads to that point - rarer than in the previous three congressional midterm elections.

As part of that oversight, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has named a top priority: forcing Trump to hand over his tax returns.

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